New Delhi: A recent study has projected that over 15 million people born between 2008 and 2017 may develop gastric cancer during their lifetime, with India contributing the second highest number of these cases after China. The study was published in the journal Nature Medicine and conducted by researchers including those from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), the World Health Organization’s cancer agency.
The analysis was based on global data from 185 countries using the GLOBOCAN 2022 database, along with mortality rates and population projections from United Nations demographic data.
“Globally, 15.6 million lifetime gastric cancer cases are expected within these birth cohorts, 76 per cent of which are attributable to Helicobacter pylori (bacteria),” the authors said.
The study estimates that nearly two-thirds of the projected cases could be concentrated in Asia, with 10.6 million of these expected to occur in the region. Of these, India and China alone could account for 6.5 million cases. Specifically, India may see around 1,657,670 cases if no changes are made in current gastric cancer control measures, the study projected.
Helicobacter pylori, a common bacteria found in the stomach, is identified as the leading cause of gastric cancer. Persistent infection from this bacterium is said to be the primary driver of the disease, which currently ranks as the fifth leading cause of cancer deaths globally.
The authors warned that the rising number of cases among young people, combined with an ageing global population, could reverse the progress made in reducing gastric cancer mortality rates in recent years.
They emphasised the need for increased investment in prevention strategies. “The authors called for more investment in preventing gastric cancer, especially through population-level screening and treating of the bacterial infection, known to be preventable through effective treatment.”
The study also highlighted potential risks for other regions. It projected that sub-Saharan Africa, which currently has a relatively low burden of gastric cancer, could see a future increase at least six times higher than 2022 estimates.
However, researchers noted that preventive actions could significantly reduce the disease burden. If effective screening and treatment for H. pylori are implemented at a population level, the number of expected cases could be reduced by up to 75 per cent, the study found.
(With inputs from PTI)