Lancet Study Warns Over Half of Adults Projected to Be Overweight or Obese by 2050
The research, part of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021, analyzed obesity trends across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021 and provided forecasts based on current trajectories. It found that overweight and obesity rates in both adults and young people have more than doubled over the past three decades.
In 2021, an estimated 2.11 billion adults and 493 million children and adolescents were overweight or obese, with more than half of the world’s overweight or obese adults concentrated in just eight countries: China (402 million), India (180 million), the USA (172 million), Brazil (88 million), Russia (71 million), Mexico (58 million), Indonesia (52 million), and Egypt (41 million).
Without urgent action, obesity rates will surge worldwide, with sub-Saharan Africa seeing the largest growth—over 250%—to 522 million adults by 2050. In Nigeria, adult obesity cases are projected to triple from 36.6 million in 2021 to 141 million in 2050, placing it among the top four countries with the highest obesity burden.
The study highlights that children and adolescents will experience an alarming surge in obesity over the next two decades, particularly among boys aged 5-14, where obesity (16.5%) is expected to outpace overweight (12.9%) by 2050.
By 2050, one-third of all young people with obesity (130 million) will be living in North Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America, leading to major health and economic consequences. Additionally, older adults (65+) will represent nearly a quarter of the world’s obese population, increasing strain on already overburdened healthcare systems.
“The unprecedented global epidemic of overweight and obesity is a profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure,” said lead author Professor Emmanuela Gakidou from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington, USA. “Governments and the public health community can use our country-specific estimates on the stage, timing, and speed of current and forecasted transitions in weight to identify priority populations experiencing the greatest burdens of obesity who require immediate intervention and treatment, and those that remain predominantly overweight and should be primarily targeted with prevention strategies.”
By 2050, China (627 million), India (450 million), and the USA (214 million) will still have the highest obesity burden, but countries like Nigeria, Brazil, and Indonesia will also see dramatic increases.
Experts warn that without immediate, targeted interventions, obesity-related diseases such as type 2 diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, and cancer will rise exponentially.
“Obesity rates are skyrocketing across sub-Saharan Africa, with 522 million adults and more than 200 million young people expected to be living with overweight or obesity by 2050,” said co-author Awoke Temesgen, clinical Associate Professor at IHME. “This has added a double burden to the already overstretched healthcare systems that are ill-equipped to handle the extraordinary rise in obesity-related disease. Action is urgently needed to implement preventative initiatives such as polices on marketing of unhealthy foods and planning to include facilities for exercise and playing fields in schools.”
With childhood and adolescent obesity set to rise sharply between 2022 and 2030, prevention efforts must be prioritized to avoid an intergenerational cycle of obesity.
“But if we act now, preventing a complete transition to global obesity for children and adolescents is still possible,” said co-lead author Dr Jessica Kerr from Murdoch Children’s Research Institute in Australia.
“Our estimates identify children and adolescents in much of Europe and south Asia living with overweight who should be targeted with obesity prevention strategies. We have also identified large populations, particularly adolescent girls, in North America, Australasia, Oceania, North Africa and the Middle East, and Latin America that are expected to tip over to obesity predominance and require urgent, multifaceted intervention and treatment. This is essential to avoid intergenerational transmission of obesity and to prevent a wave of serious health conditions and dire financial and societal costs for future generations," She further added.
Experts emphasize that stronger political commitment and policy reforms are needed to tackle the obesity crisis.
“Ultimately, as global obesity rates continue to soar, much stronger political commitment is needed to transform diets within sustainable global food systems and to support comprehensive strategies that improve people’s nutrition, physical activity and living environments, whether it's too much processed food or not enough parks,” added Dr. Kerr.