India’s Fertility Rate Drops to 1.9, Below Replacement Level: UNFPA Report

The 2025 State of World Population (SOWP) report estimates India’s population at approximately 1.4639 billion in 2025. While India remains the most populous nation globally, with nearly 1.5 billion people, the population is projected to peak at around 1.7 billion before beginning to decline.

Crucially, the report highlights that India’s total fertility rate has declined to 1.9 births per woman, dipping below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population size without migration.

This contrasts with the 2.0 children per woman reported in recent Sample Registration System (SRS) data for 2021, marking a notable demographic shift.

The report emphasizes that "the real crisis lies not in population size, but in the widespread challenges to support individuals’ right to decide freely and responsibly if, when, and how many children to have."

Despite the decline in birth rates, India’s youthful population remains substantial, with 24% aged 0-14 years, 17% in the 10-19 bracket, and 26% in the 10-24 age group. The working-age population (15-64 years) accounts for 68%, while the elderly population (65 and above) stands at 7%.

Life expectancy in India is projected at 71 years for men and 74 years for women as of 2025. Additionally, India is categorized among middle-income countries undergoing rapid demographic change, with the population doubling time now estimated at 79 years.

Andrea M. Wojnar, UNFPA India Representative, remarked on India’s progress: "India has made significant progress in lowering fertility rates — from nearly five children per woman in 1970 to about two today — thanks to improved education and access to reproductive healthcare."

She added, "This has led to major reductions in maternal mortality, meaning millions more mothers are alive today, raising children and building communities."

The report urges attention not just to population numbers but to ensuring reproductive rights and the capacity of society to support individuals’ family planning choices amid evolving demographic realities.