Study Finds Wildlife and Seasonal Changes Can Predict Bird Flu

New Delhi: A recent study has found that certain weather conditions and the presence of some birds can help predict bird flu outbreaks in Europe. Scientists used a computer model to study data from bird flu outbreaks that have happened in recent years to understand what causes these outbreaks and how to detect them early.

The study, published in the journal Scientific Reports, showed that the coldest temperatures in autumn play a big role in predicting bird flu outbreaks. However, this effect is different depending on the region. In some places, warmer autumn temperatures led to a higher chance of outbreaks, while in other areas, colder autumns increased the risk.

Water levels in lakes and ponds during winter also affect bird flu outbreaks. Lower water levels between January and March were linked to fewer outbreaks. Additionally, when plants and vegetation were less dense between October and December, there were fewer cases of bird flu.

The study also found that areas where mute swans live tend to have a higher chance of bird flu outbreaks. These large white birds may help spread the virus among wild birds and domestic poultry.

Joacim Rocklöv, a researcher at Heidelberg University in Germany, explained that bird flu outbreaks are a serious threat to both animals and people. In 2022, there was an increase in flu infections among wild mammals, raising concerns about the disease spreading to humans. Understanding what causes bird flu outbreaks is very important for stopping this from happening.

The scientists trained their computer model using information from every bird flu outbreak in Europe between 2006 and 2021. They looked at weather, local wild bird populations, farmed poultry numbers, plant growth, and water levels. They then tested their model with outbreak data from 2022 and 2023, and it accurately predicted outbreak risks.

These findings can help create better bird flu monitoring programs across Europe. Early detection and better prediction can help protect both animals and people from the disease.