New Delhi: A recent study predicts that despite various threats including geopolitical, metabolic, and environmental factors, life expectancy for men and women globally is set to increase by 4.9 and 4.2 years respectively by 2050.

However, people are likely to spend more years in poor health, revealed the study based on the latest findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021, published today in The Lancet journal.

Researchers attributed this to an increased shift from a range of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs) to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) -- like cardiovascular diseases, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and diabetes.

Life expectancy and disease burden are predicted to improve globally from 2022 to 2050, with the disease burden increasingly shifting from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs) to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The reduction in CMNN disease burden will require sustained investment and policy focus. However, the total number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from all causes is expected to rise due to population growth and aging. Future health outcomes could be significantly enhanced by eliminating specific risk exposures and increasing access to key health interventions by 2050.

Global life expectancy is predicted to increase to 78.1 years of age in 2050 (a 4.5-year increase). Global healthy life expectancy (HALE) - the average number of years a person can expect to live in good health -- will increase to 67.4 years in 2050 (a 2.6-year increase).

"In addition to an increase in life expectancy overall, we have found that the disparity in life expectancy across geographies will lessen," said Chris Murray, Chair of Health Metrics Sciences at the University of Washington and Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).

Murray added that the biggest opportunity to speed up reductions in the global disease burden is through policy interventions aimed at preventing and mitigating behavioral and metabolic risk factors.

"There is immense opportunity ahead for us to influence the future of global health by getting ahead of these rising metabolic and dietary risk factors, particularly those related to behavioral and lifestyle factors like high blood sugar, high body mass index, and high blood pressure," Murray said.



Chris MurrayUniversity of Washington

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