Study Predicts Over 70% Increase in Global Gout Prevalence by 2050

New Delhi: A study conducted at University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation predicts that the number of people affected by gout, a form of inflammatory arthritis characterized by sudden severe joint pain and swelling, will rise by over 70% by 2050. This highlights the increasing prevalence of the condition and the need for proactive measures.

The study led by researchers from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in the US showed that worldwide 55.8 million people had gout in 2020 -- an increase of 22·5 per cent since 1990.

Further, males had a 3.26 times higher prevalence of gout than females, and the disease also increased with age.

"The total number of prevalent cases of gout is estimated to reach 95.8 million in 2050," predicted the study published in The Lancet Rheumatology.

The study estimated gout prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) from 1990 to 2020 drawing on population-based data from 35 countries. The findings showed that the age-standardised gout prevalence in 2050 is forecast to be 667 per 100,000 population.

"We estimate that the number of individuals with gout will increase by more than 70 per cent from 2020 to 2050," the researchers said, adding that it is "primarily due to population growth and ageing".

Importantly, the team found that high body mass index (BMI) accounted for 34.3 per cent of YLDs due to gout and kidney dysfunction accounted for 11.8 per cent.

A separate study by Harvard University researchers, published in the journal Scientific Reports, attributed the surge in gout cases to the rise in comorbid conditions known to be precursors to gout, including obesity, insulin resistance, metabolic syndrome, hypertension, and renal diseases. To reduce the burden of gout, the researchers stressed the need to curb high BMI, and dietary and lifestyle modifications focusing on body weight reduction. They also called for increasing access to interventions to prevent and control flares.